United States
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
United States's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Economic Recession (922 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Bilateral Treaty and Government Formation. Across all categories, 8,906 precedent windows were identified — meaning United States's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Economic Recession
0.88
922 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.58
1024 prec.
Government Formation
0.45
784 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.38
817 prec.
Human Rights Reform
0.32
747 prec.
Political Corruption
0.29
663 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.16
965 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.05
436 prec.
Social Policy Reform
-0.01
528 prec.
Democratic Transition
-0.02
521 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — United States
85 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Trump Second Term — Mass Deportation and Immigration Orders
migration and refugees
2025
US Imposes Sweeping Global Tariffs
trade dispute
2025
DOGE Created — Unprecedented Federal Workforce Reduction
government formation
2024
Trump Wins Presidential Election — Second Non-Consecutive Term
elections and voting
2024
Supreme Court Rules Trump Has Presidential Immunity
constitutional change
2023
Trump Indicted — First Former President Charged Federally
political corruption
2022
Dobbs Decision Overturns Roe v. Wade
social policy reform
2022
Inflation Reduction Act — Largest US Climate Investment
climate agreement
2022
CHIPS and Science Act Revives Semiconductor Production
industrial policy
2021
January 6 Capitol Insurrection
political violence
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.