Bolivia
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Bolivia's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (39839 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Mass Protest and Civil War And Insurgency. Across all categories, 180,413 precedent windows were identified — meaning Bolivia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.75
39839 prec.
Mass Protest
0.54
24745 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.53
21771 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.42
35892 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.30
23072 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
-0.39
11893 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
-0.42
8279 prec.
Territorial Disputes
-0.85
7404 prec.
Foreign Intervention
-1.40
7518 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Bolivia
61 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
General Zuniga Leads Failed Armored Coup Attempt
military coup
2024
Severe Economic Crisis: Dollar and Fuel Shortages Deepen
banking and financial crisis
2022
Santa Cruz 36-Day Strike Paralyzes City Over Census Date
mass protest
2021
MAS Internal Split: Morales vs. Arce Fractures Bolivian Left
government formation
2020
Luis Arce Wins Election, MAS Returns to Power
elections and voting
2019
Disputed Election Results and Political Crisis Force Morales to Resign
political violence
2019
Post-Crisis Massacres at Sacaba and Senkata Kill 23
human rights violation
2018
ICJ Rules Bolivia Has No Right to Oblige Chile to Negotiate Sea Access
territorial disputes
2016
Referendum Rejects Morales's Bid for Fourth Presidential Term
elections and voting
2016
Lake Poopo Dries Up in Climate-Driven Ecological Collapse
water crisis
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.