Bosnia and Herzegovina
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Bosnia and Herzegovina's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Democratic Transition (15141 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Multilateral Agreement and Territorial Disputes. Across all categories, 75,662 precedent windows were identified — meaning Bosnia and Herzegovina's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Democratic Transition
0.90
15141 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.59
14764 prec.
Territorial Disputes
0.44
7003 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.34
8762 prec.
Mass Protest
0.15
6451 prec.
Infrastructure Project
-0.00
4734 prec.
Foreign Intervention
-0.14
4443 prec.
Political Repression
-0.15
4094 prec.
Natural Disaster
-0.21
3061 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
-0.63
3767 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Bosnia and Herzegovina
55 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Dodik Sentenced to One Year in Prison for Defying High Representative
political transition
2024
EU Opens Formal Accession Negotiations with Bosnia
multilateral agreement
2024
UN General Assembly Adopts Srebrenica Genocide Commemoration Resolution
international law
2022
Bosnia Granted EU Candidate Status
multilateral agreement
2022
General Elections — Bećirović Defeats Dodik for Bosniak Presidency Seat
political transition
2021
Dodik Launches Campaign to Dissolve State-Level Institutions
territorial dispute
2018
NATO Activates Membership Action Plan for Bosnia
multilateral agreement
2017
Ratko Mladić Convicted of Genocide and Sentenced to Life
international law
2016
Karadžić Convicted of Genocide, Sentenced to 40 Years (Later Life)
international law
2016
RS Holds Illegal Referendum Defying Constitutional Court
territorial dispute
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.