Brazil
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Brazil's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Epidemic And Pandemic (19234 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Fiscal Policy Change and Economic Recession. Across all categories, 224,599 precedent windows were identified — meaning Brazil's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.97
19234 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.85
29412 prec.
Economic Recession
0.83
18185 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.75
20704 prec.
Government Formation
0.62
27626 prec.
Political Corruption
0.62
13151 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.61
26010 prec.
Mass Protest
0.51
9494 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.44
15999 prec.
Political Repression
0.42
6936 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Brazil
239 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Brazil Chairs G20 with Social Inclusion Agenda
bilateral treaty
2024
Catastrophic Floods Devastate Rio Grande do Sul
natural disaster
2024
Bolsonaro Indicted for Alleged Coup Plot
coup and political takeover
2024
Amazon Drought and Fires Reach Record Severity
climate change and adaptation
2024
Brazil Hosts COP30 Preparation Begins in Belem
multilateral agreement
2024
Brazil Proposes Global Wealth Tax at G20
multilateral agreement
2024
Lula Government Faces Congressional Setbacks
government formation
2023
Bolsonaro Supporters Storm Government Buildings in Brasilia
coup and political takeover
2023
Lula Inaugurated for Third Presidential Term
government formation
2023
Amazon Deforestation Drops Sharply Under Lula
deforestation and land use
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.