Bulgaria
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Bulgaria's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (38581 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Civil War And Insurgency and Mass Protest. Across all categories, 197,464 precedent windows were identified — meaning Bulgaria's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.73
38581 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.59
23923 prec.
Mass Protest
0.55
25300 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.48
37630 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.19
20642 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
-0.02
13455 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
-0.10
15552 prec.
Digital Policy
-0.25
9062 prec.
Foreign Intervention
-0.77
9994 prec.
Territorial Disputes
-1.42
3325 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Bulgaria
60 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Bulgaria Achieves Full Schengen Area Membership
regional integration
2023
Bulgaria Partially Joins Schengen for Air and Sea Travel
regional integration
2022
Russia Cuts Gas to Bulgaria — Energy Crisis After Ukraine Invasion
energy policy
2022
Bulgaria Vetoes North Macedonia's EU Accession Over Historical Disputes
territorial disputes
2021
Three Elections in One Year — Anti-Establishment Wave Fragments Parliament
elections and voting
2020
100-Day Anti-Corruption Protest Wave Demands Borisov Resignation
mass protest
2020
Bulgaria Joins ERM II — Euro Adoption Process Begins
monetary policy change
2020
COVID-19 — Bulgaria Records Lowest Vaccination Rate in EU
epidemic and pandemic
2018
Journalist Viktoria Marinova Murdered — Press Freedom Alarm
political violence
2016
Pro-Russia Rumen Radev Elected President — GERB Government Resigns
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.