Canada
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Canada's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (32011 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Bilateral Treaty. Across all categories, 241,035 precedent windows were identified — meaning Canada's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.74
32011 prec.
Government Formation
0.59
39242 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.54
34027 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.44
16782 prec.
Human Rights Reform
0.36
16282 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.27
12549 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.24
16860 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.24
15108 prec.
Mass Protest
0.23
9364 prec.
Environmental Policy
0.19
21664 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Canada
73 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Trudeau Announces Resignation as Liberal Leader
leadership transition
2024
Trump Tariff Threats Expose Canada's Trade Vulnerability
trade dispute
2023
Worst Wildfire Season in Canadian History Burns 18 Million Hectares
natural disaster
2023
Housing Affordability Crisis Reaches National Emergency Level
social policy reform
2022
Freedom Convoy Protests Lead to Emergencies Act Invocation
social movements and protest
2021
Unmarked Graves at Residential Schools Deepen Reckoning
transitional justice
2020
COVID-19 Pandemic — CERB Provides Emergency Income Support
epidemic and pandemic
2018
Cannabis Legalised — Canada First Major Economy to Do So
social policy reform
2018
USMCA Renegotiation Preserves Core NAFTA Architecture
trade agreement
2017
Quebec City Mosque Shooting Kills Six in Anti-Muslim Attack
political violence
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.