Chad
HIGH RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Chad's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (25653 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Fiscal Policy Change and Government Formation. Across all categories, 227,391 precedent windows were identified — meaning Chad's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.01
25653 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.78
32745 prec.
Government Formation
0.55
37156 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.47
32975 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.37
16643 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.27
14166 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.21
16143 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
0.09
10528 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.04
13111 prec.
Foreign Direct Investment
0.02
5334 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Chad
49 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
French Military Withdrawal from N'Djamena Completed
diplomatic relations
2025
Escalating Sahel Instability Threatens Chad's Borders
military conflict
2024
Mahamat Déby Wins Presidential Election with 61%
elections and voting
2024
Chad Terminates Defense Cooperation Agreement with France
diplomatic relations
2024
Sudanese Civil War Drives Massive Refugee Influx
migration and refugees
2024
Chad Pivots Toward Russia and Turkey for Security
diplomatic relations
2023
New Constitution Approved — Fifth Republic Established
constitutional change
2023
Wagner Group Influence Expands in Neighboring States
diplomatic relations
2023
Lake Chad Basin Displacement Exceeds 3 Million
humanitarian crisis
2022
Deadly Crackdown on Pro-Democracy Protests — Black Thursday
political violence
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.