Chile
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Chile's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Elections And Voting (16380 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Constitutional Change and Fiscal Policy Change. Across all categories, 106,023 precedent windows were identified — meaning Chile's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Elections And Voting
0.87
16380 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.76
13635 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.72
13996 prec.
Mass Protest
0.68
8353 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.49
2451 prec.
Political Corruption
0.38
6206 prec.
Economic Recession
0.37
4853 prec.
Transitional Justice
0.34
5459 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.26
3585 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.22
12657 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Chile
67 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Catastrophic ValparaÃso Region Fires Kill 131; Organized Crime Surge
humanitarian crisis
2023
Boric Announces Lithium Nationalization Strategy
economic nationalization
2023
ValparaÃso Wildfires Kill Over 100; Immigration Crisis Strains North
humanitarian crisis
2022
New Constitution Rejected by 62%; Inflation Surges; Mapuche Conflict Intensifies
constitutional change
2021
Gabriel Boric Elected Youngest President in Chilean History
elections and voting
2020
78% Vote for New Constitution in Historic Referendum
constitutional change
2019
Estallido Social: Largest Uprising Since Return to Democracy
mass protest
2018
Feminist Wave Transforms Chilean Social Debate
mass protest
2017
Sebastián Piñera Wins Second Presidential Term; Catastrophic Forest Fires
elections and voting
2016
Civil Union Law Enacted; Constitutional Consultation Process Launched
social policy reform
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.