Costa Rica
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Costa Rica's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (32160 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Epidemic And Pandemic and Government Formation. Across all categories, 196,015 precedent windows were identified — meaning Costa Rica's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.92
32160 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.65
14350 prec.
Government Formation
0.61
35184 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.50
11421 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.43
16798 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.42
17363 prec.
Mass Protest
0.41
9676 prec.
Ethnic And Communal Conflict
0.26
8094 prec.
Environmental Policy
0.25
21400 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
0.17
8769 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Costa Rica
45 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Costa Rica Hosts Transit Migration from South America
migration and refugees
2024
Chaves Administration Faces Press Freedom Criticism
protest and civil unrest
2024
Nicaragua Migration Surge Strains Social Services
migration and refugees
2023
Chaves Jaguar Plan Clashes with Legislature and Comptroller
constitutional change
2023
Eco-Tourism Sector Recovers to Record Visitor Numbers
economic growth
2022
Rodrigo Chaves Wins Presidency as Anti-Establishment Populist
elections and voting
2022
Chaves Declares State of Emergency Over Cost of Living
economic crisis
2021
Costa Rica Formally Joins OECD
diplomatic relations
2021
Public Employment Framework Law Enacted
fiscal policy change
2020
Same-Sex Marriage Legalized
constitutional change
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.