Cuba
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Cuba's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Bilateral Treaty (20427 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Mass Protest and Government Formation. Across all categories, 111,750 precedent windows were identified — meaning Cuba's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Bilateral Treaty
0.66
20427 prec.
Mass Protest
0.65
8081 prec.
Government Formation
0.62
17805 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.54
6222 prec.
Political Repression
0.42
2013 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.41
6914 prec.
Economic Recession
0.30
3271 prec.
Energy Policy
0.27
7180 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.25
6453 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.24
6569 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Cuba
62 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Cuba's National Electrical Grid Collapses Entirely, Island-Wide Blackouts
energy policy
2022
Cuba Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage by National Referendum
social policy reform
2022
Record 225,000 Cuban Migrants Encountered at US-Mexico Border
migration and refugees
2021
July 11 Protests — Largest Demonstrations Against Government Since 1959
mass protest
2020
Cuba Develops Domestic COVID-19 Vaccines — Soberana and Abdala
public health reform
2020
Cuba Unifies Dual Currency System — CUC Eliminated
monetary policy change
2019
New Cuban Constitution Ratified, Acknowledges Market Economy
constitutional change
2018
Miguel Diaz-Canel Elected President — First Non-Castro Since 1959
government formation
2017
Trump Reverses Obama Cuba Policies, Restricts Travel and Business
sanctions and arms embargo
2017
Hurricane Irma Causes $13 Billion in Damage to Northern Cuba
flood and cyclone
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.