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Ecuador

MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026

Ecuador's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Government Formation (33196 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Bilateral Treaty and Fiscal Policy Change. Across all categories, 117,124 precedent windows were identified — meaning Ecuador's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.

Risk Breakdown by Category

Government Formation
0.60
33196 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.35
19703 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.04
19516 prec.
Energy Policy
-0.06
13147 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
-0.12
11200 prec.
Mass Protest
-0.37
10241 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
-0.43
9662 prec.
Trade Agreement
-0.92
459 prec.

Top Precedents by Pattern Tier

RankCategorySaliencePrecedentsLast Event
1Government Formation0.68217752024
2Fiscal Policy Change0.2889462014
3Energy Policy0.1563692023
4Bilateral Treaty0.1452082024
5Mass Protest-0.0442482022
6Civil War And Insurgency-0.1931932024
7Epidemic And Pandemic-0.4626112020
8Trade Agreement-0.837141969

Curated Events — Ecuador

67 events (1990–present)
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
TC Televisión Siege; Noboa Declares Internal Armed Conflict
CONFLICT
2024
Ecuador Invades Mexican Embassy to Arrest Former Vice President Glas
DIPLOMACY
2024
Noboa Re-elected in Landslide; Energy Crisis Hits Nationwide
GOVERNANCE
2023
Lasso Invokes 'Muerte Cruzada'; Villavicencio Assassinated; Noboa Elected
GOVERNANCE
2023
Historic Referendum Votes to Halt Yasuni Amazon Oil Drilling
ENERGY ENVIRONMENT
2022
18-Day Indigenous Uprising Forces 218-Point Agreement; Organized Crime Escalates
SOCIAL
2021
Guillermo Lasso Wins Presidency; Prison Massacres Expose Gang Penetration
GOVERNANCE
2020
COVID-19 Overwhelms Guayaquil; Economy Contracts 7.8%
HEALTH DISASTER
2019
October Uprising Against Fuel Subsidy Cuts Forces Government Reversal
SOCIAL
2018
Three Journalists Kidnapped and Killed Near Colombian Border
CONFLICT
Explore full precedent evidence for Ecuador→

QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.