El Salvador
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
El Salvador's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (30324 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Human Rights Violation and Elections And Voting. Across all categories, 201,507 precedent windows were identified — meaning El Salvador's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.74
30324 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.63
17990 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.55
19718 prec.
Government Formation
0.50
32647 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.48
29241 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.38
15437 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.33
12290 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.12
5062 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.06
14717 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.05
9915 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — El Salvador
61 events (1990–present)1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Bukele Re-elected with 84.65% of Vote
elections and voting
2024
El Salvador Signs $1.4 Billion IMF Deal with Bitcoin Concessions
fiscal policy change
2024
El Salvador's Incarceration Rate Becomes World's Highest
human rights violation
2023
State of Exception Extended Indefinitely; Over 200 Custody Deaths
human rights violation
2023
Bitcoin De Facto Demoted: Acceptance Made Voluntary
monetary policy change
2022
State of Exception Declared; Mass Arrests of Gang Members Begin
political repression
2022
CECOT Mega-Prison Announced
executive power consolidation
2022
IMF Warns on Bitcoin Risks; Loan Negotiations Stall
banking and financial crisis
2021
Nuevas Ideas Wins Supermajority; Court and AG Removed
executive power consolidation
2021
El Salvador Adopts Bitcoin as Legal Tender
monetary policy change
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.