Eritrea
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Eritrea's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (19115 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Migration And Refugees and Political Repression. Across all categories, 140,718 precedent windows were identified — meaning Eritrea's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.49
19115 prec.
Migration And Refugees
1.08
14412 prec.
Political Repression
0.98
11626 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.97
13206 prec.
Economic Recession
0.68
9669 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.66
23462 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.63
14990 prec.
Foreign Intervention
0.61
6349 prec.
Peacekeeping And Peace Process
0.41
7736 prec.
Sanctions And Arms Embargo
0.41
4549 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Eritrea
191 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Eritrea-Ethiopia Relations Remain Tense
bilateral treaty
2024
No Political Reform — 30 Years of PFDJ Rule
political repression
2024
Eritrean Diaspora Advocacy Intensifies
migration and refugees
2023
Eritrea-Ethiopia Relations Show Strain
bilateral treaty
2023
Eritrean Refugees Continue Mass Flight
migration and refugees
2023
Sudan Crisis Creates New Crisis for Eritrean Refugees
migration and refugees
2022
Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in Tigray
peacekeeping and peace process
2022
Eritrean Forces Slow to Withdraw from Tigray
civil war and insurgency
2022
Eritrea Among World's Least Free Countries
civil liberties
2021
Eritrean Forces Remain in Tigray Despite Calls to Withdraw
civil war and insurgency
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.