Ethiopia
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Ethiopia's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (19310 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Migration And Refugees and Government Formation. Across all categories, 175,365 precedent windows were identified — meaning Ethiopia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.30
19310 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.73
12298 prec.
Government Formation
0.65
30316 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.52
21497 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.52
11724 prec.
Economic Recession
0.50
9183 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.49
11083 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.45
9001 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.43
14164 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.42
11990 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Ethiopia
280 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Ethiopia signs memorandum with Somaliland for sea access
bilateral treaty
2024
Conflict in Amhara region continues with no resolution
civil war and insurgency
2024
Ethiopia joins BRICS as full member
bilateral treaty
2024
Tigray reconstruction begins amid continued Eritrean presence
government formation
2024
Ethiopia's population reaches 130 million
demographics and population
2024
GERD begins commercial power generation
infrastructure and urban development
2024
Oromia security crisis: OLA confrontations with federal forces
insurgency and guerrilla
2024
Lethal floods hit Gambella and SNNP regions
natural disaster
2023
Tigray peace implementation begins but stalls
government formation
2023
Amhara region conflict escalates: Fano militias confront federal forces
insurgency and guerrilla
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.