France
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
France's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Elections And Voting (16000 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Mass Protest. Across all categories, 92,942 precedent windows were identified — meaning France's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Elections And Voting
0.97
16000 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.97
9288 prec.
Mass Protest
0.87
9683 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.60
8263 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.55
8769 prec.
Foreign Intervention
0.47
5396 prec.
Government Formation
0.38
9998 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.29
8519 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.16
4030 prec.
Diplomatic Rupture
0.16
4104 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — France
74 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Snap Legislative Elections Produce Hung Parliament — Political Crisis
elections and voting
2024
France Completes Withdrawal from Sahel — End of African Military Presence
military policy and reform
2023
Pension Reform Passed via Article 49.3 — Massive Protests
labor action
2023
Riots After Nahel Police Shooting — Worst Urban Unrest Since 2005
mass protest
2022
Macron Re-elected — Hung Parliament Follows
elections and voting
2021
AUKUS Deal — Australia Cancels French Submarine Contract
diplomatic rupture
2020
COVID-19 Pandemic — France in National Lockdown
epidemic and pandemic
2020
Samuel Paty Beheading — Teacher Killed for Showing Muhammad Cartoons
terrorist attack
2018
Gilets Jaunes Protests — Populist Uprising Against Macron
mass protest
2017
Emmanuel Macron Elected President — Party System Disrupted
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.