Germany
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Germany's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Elections And Voting (13222 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Epidemic And Pandemic. Across all categories, 112,602 precedent windows were identified — meaning Germany's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Elections And Voting
0.96
13222 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.78
8061 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.49
8231 prec.
Energy Policy
0.39
9264 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.38
6575 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.37
7183 prec.
Government Formation
0.29
5932 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.28
5534 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.27
6578 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.25
10921 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Germany
69 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Friedrich Merz wins federal election; Germany suspends debt brake for defense
elections and voting
2024
AfD wins Thuringia state election; traffic light coalition collapses
elections and voting
2023
Constitutional Court strikes down budget reallocation, triggering fiscal crisis
constitutional change
2023
Last nuclear power plants shut down, completing Germany's nuclear exit
energy policy and resources
2022
Russia invades Ukraine: Germany announces Zeitenwende defense policy shift
military policy and reform
2022
Germany conducts crash program to phase out Russian gas after Ukraine invasion
energy policy and resources
2021
Ahr Valley floods kill 184 in Germany's deadliest disaster in decades
natural disaster
2021
Federal election ends Merkel era; Scholz forms traffic light coalition
elections and voting
2020
Germany leads EU recovery fund breakthrough, enabling common EU debt
regional integration
2020
COVID-19: Germany suspends debt brake for massive economic rescue
public health and epidemics
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.