Guatemala
HIGH RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Guatemala's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Political Corruption (10498 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Elections And Voting and Civil War And Insurgency. Across all categories, 101,960 precedent windows were identified — meaning Guatemala's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Political Corruption
1.07
10498 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.87
14182 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.69
6544 prec.
Political Repression
0.66
7741 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.65
8874 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.64
9107 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.57
5656 prec.
Government Formation
0.55
14447 prec.
Human Rights Reform
0.45
6464 prec.
Ethnic And Communal Conflict
0.45
5599 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Guatemala
61 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Arévalo Government Pursues Anti-Corruption Reforms Amid Continued Obstruction
democratic transition
2024
Bernardo Arévalo Inaugurated as President After Chaotic Transfer of Power
government formation
2024
Arévalo Government Faces Systematic Institutional Blockades from Prosecutors
political corruption
2023
Bernardo Arévalo Wins Presidential Election on Anti-Corruption Platform
elections and voting
2023
Attorney General Attempts to Annul Semilla Party and Block Inauguration
executive power consolidation
2023
Indigenous Communities Hold 100-Day Blockade in Defense of Democracy
mass protest
2022
Systematic Persecution of Anti-Corruption Prosecutors and Judges
political repression
2022
Remittances Exceed $18 Billion Annually — Over 18% of GDP
migration and refugees
2021
Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Juan Francisco Sandoval Fired and Flees to Exile
political repression
2020
Anti-Corruption Protesters Set Fire to Congress Over Budget Scandal
mass protest
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.