Haiti
HIGH RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Haiti's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Political Repression (11720 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Migration And Refugees and Epidemic And Pandemic. Across all categories, 114,504 precedent windows were identified — meaning Haiti's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Political Repression
0.97
11720 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.96
9448 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.83
9233 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.75
10575 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.68
13529 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.66
7627 prec.
Mass Protest
0.62
8020 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.60
10882 prec.
Political Corruption
0.52
7094 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.48
10618 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Haiti
52 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Gang coalition seizes airport and prisons; Prime Minister Henry resigns
State Collapse and Political Transition
2024
Kenyan-led multinational security mission begins deploying with 400 police
International Security Mission
2023
UN Security Council authorizes Kenyan-led multinational security support mission
International Security Response
2022
G9 gang blockade of fuel terminal paralyzes Haiti's entire economy
Gang Control and Economic Paralysis
2021
President Jovenel Moïse assassinated by mercenary commando at his residence
Political Assassination
2021
Magnitude 7.2 earthquake kills 2,248 in southern Haiti weeks after assassination
Natural Disaster
2020
Parliament dissolves; Moïse rules by decree as gangs escalate massacres
State Failure and Gang Violence
2019
Sustained mass protests demand Moïse's resignation over PetroCaribe scandal
Mass Protests
2018
PetroCaribe corruption scandal triggers mass protests demanding accountability
Anti-Corruption Protests
2017
MINUSTAH closes after 13 years with deeply ambiguous legacy
UN Mission Closure
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.