Honduras
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Honduras's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (17788 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Elections And Voting and Political Corruption. Across all categories, 149,891 precedent windows were identified — meaning Honduras's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.80
17788 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.75
12948 prec.
Political Corruption
0.74
8262 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.72
9323 prec.
Economic Recession
0.61
10962 prec.
Government Formation
0.55
20112 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.54
7235 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.53
20790 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.52
9311 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.49
3439 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Honduras
55 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Trump Administration Threatens TPS Termination for Hundreds of Thousands of Hondurans
migration and refugees
2024
Former President Hernández Convicted on All Counts, Sentenced to 45 Years
transitional justice
2023
Honduras Switches Diplomatic Recognition from Taiwan to China, Joins Belt and Road
diplomatic rupture
2022
Former President Hernández Extradited to United States on Drug Trafficking Charges
transitional justice
2021
David Castillo Convicted of Co-Authoring Berta Cáceres Assassination
transitional justice
2021
Xiomara Castro Wins Historic Presidential Election, Ending National Party Rule
elections and voting
2020
Hurricanes Eta and Iota Strike Honduras Within Two Weeks, Causing Catastrophic Flooding
flood and cyclone
2019
US Federal Prosecutors Name Hernández as Drug Trafficking Co-Conspirator
political corruption
2018
Migrant Caravans from Honduras Draw International Attention to Forced Displacement
migration and refugees
2017
Hernández Wins Disputed Re-Election Amid Massive Fraud Allegations and Deadly Protests
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.