Hungary
HIGH RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Hungary's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (5270 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Democratic Transition and Fiscal Policy Change. Across all categories, 55,804 precedent windows were identified — meaning Hungary's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
0.70
5270 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.65
11535 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.63
15552 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.15
5367 prec.
Regional Integration
-0.02
3421 prec.
Sport And International Event
-0.09
536 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
-0.11
4060 prec.
Economic Recession
-0.18
3929 prec.
Executive Power Consolidation
-0.20
2886 prec.
Migration And Refugees
-0.22
3248 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Hungary
67 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Former Orbán ally Péter Magyar launches large-scale opposition movement
elections and voting
2022
FIDESZ wins fifth consecutive supermajority despite unified opposition challenge
elections and voting
2022
Russia invades Ukraine; Hungary maintains ambiguous stance breaking with NATO allies
diplomatic rupture
2022
EU triggers rule-of-law conditionality mechanism, freezing billions in cohesion funds
sanctions and arms embargo
2021
Anti-LGBTQ law prohibits school education on homosexuality and gender issues
human rights violation
2020
Emergency powers law grants Orbán indefinite rule by decree during COVID pandemic
executive power consolidation
2018
European Parliament triggers Article 7 procedure against Hungary over rule-of-law
human rights violation
2017
Parliament passes law targeting Central European University, effectively expelling it
education and research
2015
Hungary erects border fence and declares migration crisis emergency
migration and refugees
2014
FIDESZ wins third consecutive supermajority; Orbán declares illiberal democracy
executive power consolidation
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.