Iceland
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Iceland's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Economic Diversification (4326 historical precedent windows). Also notable: International Relation and Economic Growth. Across all categories, 31,741 precedent windows were identified — meaning Iceland's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Economic Diversification
0.80
4326 prec.
International Relation
0.73
3564 prec.
Economic Growth
0.68
3820 prec.
Presidential Election
0.67
1841 prec.
Covid19 Response
0.38
1312 prec.
Economic Recovery
0.35
1402 prec.
Environmental Policy
0.35
4102 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.31
3037 prec.
Environmental Conservation
0.24
2459 prec.
Renewable Energy Project
0.23
1968 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Iceland
39 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Grindavik Partially Reopens After Two Years of Displacement
humanitarian crisis
2024
Lava Engulfs Homes in Grindavik as Eruptions Continue
volcanic eruption
2023
Grindavik Evacuated as Volcanic Activity Threatens Town
volcanic eruption
2022
Government Announces End of Commercial Whaling by 2024
environmental policy
2021
Fagradalsfjall Eruption Ends 800-Year Dormancy on Reykjanes
volcanic eruption
2020
COVID-19 Managed Through Testing Partnership with deCODE
epidemic and pandemic
2018
World's First Mandatory Equal Pay Certification Law Takes Effect
social policy reform
2017
Tourism Surpasses Two Million Annual Visitors
economic growth milestone
2016
Panama Papers Force Prime Minister's Resignation
political corruption
2016
US Announces Keflavik Facility Reactivation
military policy and reform
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.