Central African Republic
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Central African Republic's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (35754 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Civil War And Insurgency and Epidemic And Pandemic. Across all categories, 236,945 precedent windows were identified — meaning Central African Republic's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.96
35754 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.95
18594 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.92
20247 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.84
18713 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.75
17457 prec.
Government Formation
0.65
37254 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.57
18790 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.54
15151 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.50
23983 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.41
16294 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Central African Republic
51 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
3R and UPC Armed Groups Disarm in Peace Ceremony
peacekeeping and peace process
2025
Touadera Wins Third Term in December Elections
elections and voting
2024
Kimberley Process Fully Lifts Diamond Embargo
trade policy
2024
Severe Flooding Displaces Thousands Across CAR
natural disaster
2024
Wagner Rebrands as Africa Corps Under Russian MoD
security sector reform
2023
Constitutional Referendum Removes Term Limits
constitutional change
2023
Special Criminal Court Issues First Conviction
judicial reform
2022
France Ends Operation Sangaris Military Presence
diplomatic relations
2022
UN Panel Reports Wagner Abuses Against Civilians
humanitarian crisis
2021
Government Counter-Offensive Recaptures Territory
military conflict
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.