Signals

Historical risk archetypes — the economic trajectories that preceded geopolitical events. Each Signal represents an event type with active precedents.

Civil War And Insurgency

2.3
61 countries300,010 precedent windows
Iraq2.3Lebanon2.2Israel2.1Pakistan2.1Somalia2.0
+56 more countries

Terrorist Attack

1.8
33 countries68,087 precedent windows
Afghanistan1.8New Zealand1.7Egypt1.5Italy1.5United Kingdom1.3
+28 more countries

Political Repression

1.6
41 countries107,683 precedent windows
Tajikistan1.6Russia1.4Haiti1.4Turkiye1.1Tunisia1.1
+36 more countries

Foreign Intervention

1.6
14 countries44,450 precedent windows
Afghanistan1.6Libya1.0Somalia0.8Angola0.8Italy0.7
+9 more countries

Military Coup

1.5
8 countries11,759 precedent windows
Mauritania1.5Pakistan1.2Sudan1.2Thailand1.1Ghana0.8
+3 more countries

Mass Protest

1.5
41 countries178,125 precedent windows
Thailand1.5Morocco1.3Egypt1.1France1.0Georgia0.9
+36 more countries

Human Rights Violation

1.5
36 countries115,664 precedent windows
Iraq1.5Morocco1.4Eritrea1.2Afghanistan1.2Colombia1.1
+31 more countries

Fiscal Policy Change

1.5
77 countries760,037 precedent windows
Argentina1.5United Arab Emirates1.2Morocco1.2Ghana1.2Central African Republic1.2
+72 more countries

Economic Recession

1.4
37 countries68,100 precedent windows
Moldova1.4Slovenia1.3Egypt1.1Argentina1.0Vietnam1.0
+32 more countries

Elections And Voting

1.4
43 countries188,893 precedent windows
Ghana1.4France1.3Argentina1.2Italy1.2South Korea1.2
+38 more countries

Migration And Refugees

1.3
31 countries88,774 precedent windows
Haiti1.3Eritrea1.3Italy1.0Afghanistan0.9Ethiopia0.9
+26 more countries

Political Corruption

1.2
22 countries40,739 precedent windows
Guatemala1.2Argentina1.0South Africa0.9Colombia0.9Honduras0.9
+17 more countries

Constitutional Change

1.2
41 countries73,801 precedent windows
Thailand1.2South Korea1.2Kenya0.9Tunisia0.9Moldova0.9
+36 more countries

Judicial Reform

1.2
5 countries1,550 precedent windows
Moldova1.2Montenegro0.9Slovakia0.6Mauritania0.6North Macedonia0.6

Government Formation

1.1
76 countries731,309 precedent windows
Palestine1.1Australia0.9Ethiopia0.9Georgia0.8South Africa0.8
+71 more countries

Presidential Election

1.1
8 countries3,152 precedent windows
Mongolia1.1Turkmenistan0.8Mauritania0.8Moldova0.7Iceland0.7
+3 more countries

Economic Growth

1.0
15 countries13,362 precedent windows
Latvia1.0Lithuania1.0Cyprus0.9Montenegro0.8Malta0.8
+10 more countries

Political Violence

1.0
7 countries11,043 precedent windows
Iraq1.0Nigeria1.0Indonesia0.9Libya0.8Lebanon0.5
+2 more countries

Epidemic And Pandemic

1.0
26 countries85,357 precedent windows
Brazil1.0Haiti0.9Central African Republic0.9Vietnam0.7China0.6
+21 more countries

Military Policy And Reform

1.0
32 countries122,574 precedent windows
North Korea1.0Czechia0.8Denmark0.7France0.7Estonia0.7
+27 more countries

Bilateral Treaty

1.0
82 countries611,313 precedent windows
Saudi Arabia1.0Greece0.9South Korea0.9Jordan0.9Russia0.9
+77 more countries

Democratic Transition

1.0
24 countries149,808 precedent windows
Bosnia and Herzegovina1.0Haiti1.0Greece0.8Hungary0.8Ghana0.6
+19 more countries

Political Reform

0.9
5 countries2,110 precedent windows
Maldives0.9Montenegro0.8Moldova0.7North Macedonia0.4Malta0.3

Trade Agreement

0.9
21 countries55,108 precedent windows
Oman0.9Qatar0.8Tajikistan0.8Moldova0.7Bahrain0.6
+16 more countries

Economic Diversification

0.9
12 countries6,687 precedent windows
Iceland0.9Lithuania0.7Mongolia0.6Qatar0.6Maldives0.6
+7 more countries

International Relation

0.9
4 countries1,877 precedent windows
Iceland0.9New Zealand0.5Slovakia0.4Brunei0.3

Territorial Disputes

0.9
12 countries20,584 precedent windows
Morocco0.9China0.7Philippines0.6Algeria0.4Vietnam0.3
+7 more countries

Parliamentary Election

0.8
3 countries1,107 precedent windows
Mongolia0.8Moldova0.7Slovakia0.6

Economic Recovery

0.8
9 countries4,734 precedent windows
Cyprus0.8Montenegro0.6North Macedonia0.5Bahrain0.4Maldives0.4
+4 more countries

Economic Reform

0.8
18 countries9,734 precedent windows
North Macedonia0.8Mauritania0.7Montenegro0.7Bahrain0.7Lithuania0.6
+13 more countries

Human Rights Reform

0.8
12 countries32,146 precedent windows
Australia0.8Qatar0.5Guatemala0.5Canada0.4United Kingdom0.4
+7 more countries

Economic Challenge

0.7
4 countries1,222 precedent windows
Moldova0.7Mongolia0.3Malta0.3Palestine0.2

Energy Policy

0.7
18 countries44,370 precedent windows
Saudi Arabia0.7Slovakia0.6Germany0.4Denmark0.4United Arab Emirates0.4
+13 more countries

Currency Crisis

0.7
2 countries3,564 precedent windows
Argentina0.7Turkiye0.3

Multilateral Agreement

0.7
19 countries53,269 precedent windows
Bosnia and Herzegovina0.7Poland0.6Russia0.6Brazil0.5Haiti0.5
+14 more countries

Social Policy Reform

0.6
41 countries189,601 precedent windows
Latvia0.6Slovakia0.4Iceland0.3Lithuania0.3Chile0.2
+36 more countries

Ethnic And Communal Conflict

0.6
5 countries6,846 precedent windows
Kenya0.6Mexico0.6Guatemala0.5Honduras0.5Ireland-1.5

Anticorruption Measure

0.6
3 countries1,024 precedent windows
Moldova0.6Montenegro0.5Mauritania0.5

Peacekeeping And Peace Process

0.5
4 countries3,906 precedent windows
Israel0.5Sudan0.5Philippines0.5Yemen0.0

Humanitarian Crisis

0.5
2 countries460 precedent windows
South Korea0.5Somalia0.2

Economic Growth Milestone

0.5
1 countries65 precedent windows
Vietnam0.5

Environmental Initiative

0.5
13 countries11,085 precedent windows
Latvia0.5Luxembourg0.4North Macedonia0.4Lithuania0.4Cyprus0.4
+8 more countries

Natural Disaster

0.5
4 countries5,859 precedent windows
Tajikistan0.5Ethiopia0.4Bosnia and Herzegovina-0.4Sri Lanka-0.8

Humanitarian Crisi

0.5
1 countries66 precedent windows
Palestine0.5

Transitional Justice

0.5
2 countries4,606 precedent windows
Chile0.5Croatia-0.1

Interstate War

0.4
2 countries2,268 precedent windows
Israel0.4Lebanon0.2

Regional Cooperation

0.4
4 countries462 precedent windows
Slovakia0.4Tajikistan0.4Montenegro0.3Slovenia0.1

International Diplomacy

0.4
2 countries344 precedent windows
Luxembourg0.4Palestine0.3

Environmental Protection

0.4
2 countries1,649 precedent windows
Latvia0.4Mongolia0.3

Environmental Policy

0.4
30 countries77,289 precedent windows
Iceland0.4Costa Rica0.3Mauritania0.3New Zealand0.3Qatar0.2
+25 more countries

Public Sector Reform

0.4
1 countries256 precedent windows
Latvia0.4

Sanctions And Arms Embargo

0.4
3 countries4,244 precedent windows
Eritrea0.4Iran0.4Libya0.3

Digital Transformation

0.4
5 countries1,896 precedent windows
Cyprus0.4Latvia0.3Brunei0.2Luxembourg0.1Oman0.1

Environmental Conservation

0.3
5 countries4,028 precedent windows
Cyprus0.3Lithuania0.3Malta0.3Bahrain0.3Oman0.2

Covid19 Response

0.3
3 countries608 precedent windows
Brunei0.3Iceland0.3Luxembourg0.2

Regional Integration

0.3
4 countries12,829 precedent windows
Czechia0.3Denmark0.2Hungary0.2Germany0.2

Diplomatic Rupture

0.3
3 countries2,547 precedent windows
Jordan0.3France0.0North Korea0.0

Healthcare Improvement

0.3
5 countries3,006 precedent windows
North Macedonia0.3Cyprus0.3Bahrain0.3Maldives0.2Oman0.1

Economic Initiative

0.3
2 countries716 precedent windows
Malta0.3Maldives0.3

Agricultural Development

0.3
1 countries124 precedent windows
Tajikistan0.3

Environmental Sustainability

0.3
1 countries252 precedent windows
Latvia0.3

Economic Crisi

0.3
1 countries44 precedent windows
Palestine0.3

Social Welfare Program

0.3
2 countries532 precedent windows
Lithuania0.3Mongolia0.3

Cultural Event

0.3
1 countries252 precedent windows
Lithuania0.3

Tourism Promotion

0.3
2 countries832 precedent windows
Bahrain0.3Oman0.2

Energy Sector Development

0.3
3 countries484 precedent windows
Qatar0.3Brunei0.2New Zealand0.1

Cultural Revival

0.3
1 countries132 precedent windows
Tajikistan0.3

Diplomatic Relation

0.3
1 countries396 precedent windows
Mauritania0.3

Environmental Awareness

0.3
1 countries600 precedent windows
Cyprus0.3

Health Improvement

0.3
1 countries472 precedent windows
Malta0.3

Public Health Campaign

0.3
3 countries1,972 precedent windows
Bahrain0.3Brunei0.3New Zealand0.2

Environmental Legislation

0.3
1 countries330 precedent windows
Luxembourg0.3

Flood And Cyclone

0.3
20 countries45,066 precedent windows
Australia0.3Greece0.2Costa Rica0.2Chad0.1Dominican Republic0.1
+15 more countries

Tourism Boom

0.2
1 countries256 precedent windows
Iceland0.2

Renewable Energy Project

0.2
3 countries822 precedent windows
Oman0.2Mauritania0.2Luxembourg0.1

Digital Policy

0.2
9 countries26,438 precedent windows
United Arab Emirates0.2Estonia0.1Finland0.1Vietnam0.0Albania-0.0
+4 more countries

Economic Recovery Plan

0.2
1 countries213 precedent windows
Latvia0.2

Economic Stabilization

0.2
1 countries376 precedent windows
Cyprus0.2

Economic Liberalization

0.2
2 countries390 precedent windows
Bahrain0.2Uzbekistan-0.5

Financial Sector Reform

0.2
1 countries294 precedent windows
Iceland0.2

Political Stability

0.2
1 countries336 precedent windows
Maldives0.2

Cultural Heritage Promotion

0.2
1 countries220 precedent windows
Brunei0.2

Environmental Conservation Initiative

0.2
1 countries304 precedent windows
Brunei0.2

International Trade Agreement

0.2
1 countries176 precedent windows
Brunei0.2

Infrastructure Project

0.2
15 countries37,108 precedent windows
Turkmenistan0.2Qatar0.1Uzbekistan0.1Dominican Republic0.0Laos0.0
+10 more countries

Foreign Aid And Development

0.2
1 countries102 precedent windows
United Arab Emirates0.2

Education Reform

0.2
11 countries15,683 precedent windows
Brunei0.2New Zealand0.1Luxembourg0.1Qatar0.1Turkmenistan0.1
+6 more countries

Social Welfare Enhancement

0.1
1 countries186 precedent windows
Brunei0.1

Ceasefire Agreement

0.1
1 countries66 precedent windows
Palestine0.1

Infrastructure Development

0.1
5 countries1,887 precedent windows
Luxembourg0.1Slovenia0.1Turkmenistan0.1Palestine0.0Uzbekistan0.0

Labor Action

0.1
2 countries1,144 precedent windows
France0.1Kazakhstan-0.6

Diplomatic Effort

0.1
1 countries44 precedent windows
Palestine0.1

Executive Power Consolidation

0.1
2 countries1,998 precedent windows
Hungary0.1North Korea0.0

Constitutional Amendment

0.1
1 countries84 precedent windows
Slovenia0.1

Cultural Promotion

0.0
1 countries86 precedent windows
Turkmenistan0.0

Cultural Heritage

0.0
1 countries85 precedent windows
Palestine0.0

Foreign Direct Investment

0.0
3 countries3,791 precedent windows
Chad0.0Mali-0.4Mozambique-0.6

Infrastructure Investment

0.0
1 countries66 precedent windows
Turkmenistan0.0

Educational Initiative

0.0
1 countries85 precedent windows
Palestine0.0

Cultural And Heritage

0.0
10 countries16,330 precedent windows
Belgium0.0Finland-0.0Portugal-0.0Croatia-0.0Jamaica-0.1
+5 more countries

Sport And International Event

0.0
4 countries7,984 precedent windows
Belgium0.0Croatia-0.0Hungary-0.0Portugal-0.1

Environmental Effort

0.0
1 countries0 precedent windows
Uzbekistan0.0

Constitutional Referendum

0.0
1 countries0 precedent windows
Uzbekistan0.0

Social Program

0.0
1 countries0 precedent windows
Uzbekistan0.0

Agricultural Policy

-0.3
1 countries147 precedent windows
Ireland-0.3

Resource Conflict

-0.6
1 countries217 precedent windows
Kazakhstan-0.6
106 active signals across 126 countries