The indicators behind every score

3-year avg of adequacy of calorie supply vs minimum requirement. FAOSTAT FS.

Share of population with insufficient habitual food consumption. 3-year avg. FAOSTAT FS.

Cereal imports / (production + imports - exports). Trade vulnerability signal. FAOSTAT FS.

SDG 6.1.1 indicator. Core development + governance signal. FAOSTAT FS.

SDG 6.2.1 tier-3 indicator. Dev / governance signal. FAOSTAT FS.

Only global indicator tracking LGBTQ+ political inclusion. Sharp movements predict social_policy_reform. Hungary/Russia (declining) vs Taiwan/Ireland (rising) follow distinct recipes. Fills a complete event-category gap.

**Single biggest gap for Social Mobilization family.** Measures actual mobilization capacity (vs legal permission). Low + sudden liberalization = explosion of mobilization (Eastern Europe 1989). Directly serves mass_protest, labor_action, social_policy_reform.

Foundational enabler/disabler of mobilization. Civil society can't organize protests without right to form. Distinct from VD-05 (repression of *existing* organizations).

How corrupt is the executive branch specifically (not the country in general)? More targeted than WB's Control of Corruption which is economy-wide perception.

Property rights + freedom of movement + religion + equality before law. Property rights collapse precedes migration_and_refugees + economic_crisis. Religious freedom restrictions precede sectarian violence.

Primary substrate for gender_policy_reform (currently zero substrate). Cross-family: low scores predict democratic backsliding + authoritarian consolidation.

**Most cross-cutting V-Dem variable.** Distinct from VD-03/04 (formal constraints): measures *actual functioning* of legal system. Adds signal to 6 of 8 recipe families. 200+ years of expert-coded depth vs WB WGI's perception measure.

How actively do citizens engage in politics beyond voting? High participation + weak institutions = revolution risk. Low participation = coup risk (no one defends the regime).

Captures pre-violence repression: assembly→association→expression. Regimes that restrict political liberties before violence have a different trajectory. The gap between VD-15 and VD-12 is itself informative.

Static power-distribution measure. Combo with VD-26 distinguishes "formal rights but no power" (high VD-26 trajectory + low VD-27) — backlash regime type with specific instability patterns.

Is the government shutting down NGOs, arresting activists, restricting assembly? Escalating repression precedes political_violence and democratic breakdown.

Static institutional moderator. UK government collapse (bicameral) ≠ Turkey executive consolidation. Allows recipe filtering by institutional structure.

Direct antecedent for political_violence + human_rights_violation. A drop precedes regime-crisis events 1-2 years out. Isolates the "targeted assassination" channel that VD-12 blends into a composite.

Class-politics indicator entirely missing today. High elite capture predicts mass_protest + populist executive_transition. Arab Spring + LatAm pink tide + global populist wave all show high VD-28.

Patronage-network architecture. When network collapses (resource curse reversal, succession crisis), entire structure disintegrates rapidly. Primary recipe substrate for SSA + Central Asia + parts of MENA.

Electoral democracy + rule of law + civil liberties. The gap between VD-01 and VD-02 reveals "democratic facade" regimes — elections without genuine freedom. Use as the stable-democracy salience discount factor.

One of few V-Dem indicators serving Diplomacy & Geopolitics. Sovereignty collapse from 0.7 to 0.3 = foreign_intervention happening in real time. No WB indicator captures this.

Can parliament block the president? When this drops alongside VD-03, institutional checks are collapsing — strong signal for authoritarian consolidation.

elections + election_violence have no dedicated indicator today. VD-32 isolates electoral process specifically (vs VD-01 broader composite). Declining VD-32 with stable VD-01 = pre-fraud signal.

Leading indicator for political_repression + human_rights_violation. Regimes escalate torture before mass killings or crackdowns become visible. Independent measurement path from VD-12.

Historically deep signal for political_repression + democratic_transition where VD-08's alternative-information component is signal-poor pre-1990. Critical for pre-internet recipes.

Captures the executive *trying* to attack judicial independence (action), not just the outcome (VD-03). Reform attempts precede independence erosion 1-3 years. Direct substrate for judicial_reform.

**Strongest structural predictor of civil war onset** in political-science literature (Cederman, Wimmer). Tamils/Kurds/Tutsis all follow this recipe. Pairs with WB ethnic fractionalization.

Legitimacy collapse without losing power = pre-coup/pre-protest danger zone. Distinct from VD-01 (institutional quality) — measures perceived legitimacy. Cross-family signal.

Distinguishes clientelistic (Venezuela/Iraq) vs programmatic (austerity-resilient) vs identity (channels stress to ethnic/religious mobilization). No other indicator enables this differentiation.

Core democracy score. When this declines, a country is backsliding — precedes constitutional_change, protest, political_crisis. When it rises, democratic transition is underway.

Whole-of-government corruption (vs VD-07 executive-only). Gap between VD-07 and VD-18 reveals centralized (kleptocratic) vs diffuse (failed-state) corruption — different recipe trajectories.

0=closed autocracy, 1=electoral autocracy, 2=electoral democracy, 3=liberal democracy. Regime transitions between categories ARE the events QGI predicts. Use as a state variable for filtering.

Physical integrity rights — freedom from torture, extrajudicial killing, political imprisonment. Escalating violations are a 1-2 year leading indicator for political_violence and civil_war.

Group-differentiated rights (ethnic/religious/gender). Decline precedes sectarian violence + minority persecution. Combines with WB ethnic fractionalization for compound communal-violence recipe.

Can the government actually tax + deliver services? Substitute for the legacy v2stcapacity (renamed/retired in V-Dem v16, 2026-04). Low capacity + external stress = state failure → civil_war, humanitarian_crisis.

Media freedom + access to alternative information sources. When a government starts controlling media, it's preparing for something. 1-3 year leading indicator for authoritarian moves.

Operational measure of legislative accountability (vs VD-04 formal capability). Parliament that stops asking questions before formal constitutional change = early warning.

Can courts block the president? When this drops, executive power grab is underway. 2-4 year leading indicator for constitutional_change and democratic backsliding.

Is society splitting into irreconcilable camps? High polarization precedes constitutional crises, government formation failures, and election violence.

Total population is based on the de facto definition of population.

Inflation as measured by the annual growth rate of the GDP implicit deflator.

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency.

GNI per capita is the gross national income, converted to U.S. dollars using the World Bank Atlas method, divided by the midyear population.

Net migration is the net total of migrants during the period, that is, the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants.

Indicates the number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.

Arms transfers cover the supply of military weapons through sales, aid, gifts, and licenses and leases.

The probability per 1,000 that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five.

The number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

Food production index covers food crops that are considered edible and that contain nutrients.

The value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world.

Military expenditures data from SIPRI as a share of GDP.

Value added in services as a percentage of GDP.

General government final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP.

Current account balance as a percentage of GDP.

GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.

GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population.

The percentage of the urban population with access to electricity.

The value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP.

The value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index.

Value added in agriculture, forestry, and fishing as a percentage of GDP.

Value added in manufacturing as a percentage of GDP.

Gross capital formation (formerly gross domestic investment) consists of outlays on additions to the fixed assets of the economy plus net changes in the level of inventories.

Household final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP.

Total reserves comprise holdings of monetary gold, special drawing rights, reserves of IMF members held by the IMF, and holdings of foreign exchange.

Broad money (IFS line 35L..ZK) is the sum of currency outside banks; demand deposits other than those of the central government.

Labor force participation rate, female is the proportion of the female population ages 15-64 that is economically active.

Number of refugees originating from a country, recognised under the UNHCR mandate. Direct measure of conflict-driven displacement output.

Measures perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically-motivated violence.

Gross enrollment ratio is the ratio of total enrollment, regardless of age, to the population of the age group that officially corresponds to the level of education shown.

The proportion of a country's population that is employed.

The share of the labor force that is without work but available for and seeking employment.

The percentage of the rural population with access to electricity.

Individuals who have used the Internet (from any location) in the last 3 months.

Subscriptions to a public mobile telephone service that provide access to the PSTN using cellular technology.

The value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world.

Captures perceptions of the extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate in selecting their government.

Captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures.

Captures perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development.

Captures perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement.

Captures perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and grand forms of corruption.

Exports of military weapons through sales, aid, gifts, and licenses.

Gross domestic product at purchaser's prices, constant 2015 US$.

Value added in mining, manufacturing, construction, electricity, water, and gas as a percentage of GDP.

Foreign direct investment, net inflows as a percentage of GDP.

Foreign direct investment, net outflows as a percentage of GDP.

Total reserves expressed in terms of the number of months of imports of goods and services they could pay for.

Total external debt stocks as a percentage of gross national income.

The sum of principal repayments and interest actually paid in currency, goods, or services on long-term debt, interest paid on short-term debt, and repayments to the IMF.

Revenue is cash receipts from taxes, social contributions, and other revenues such as fines, fees, rent, and income from property or sales.

Tax revenue refers to compulsory transfers to the central government for public purposes.

Expense is cash payments for operating activities of the government in providing goods and services.

Lending rate is the bank rate that usually meets the short- and medium-term financing needs of the private sector.

High-technology exports are products with high R&D intensity, such as in aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, and electrical machinery.

Youth unemployment refers to the share of the labor force ages 15-24 without work but available for and seeking employment.

Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income (or, in some cases, consumption expenditure) among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution.

Net energy imports are estimated as energy use less production, both measured in oil equivalents.

Per-capita carbon dioxide emissions (excluding land-use change and forestry), scaled with IPCC AR5 GWPs. Replaces the retired EN.ATM.CO2E.PC.

Number of battle deaths from intra- or inter-state armed conflict; sourced from UCDP via WB.

Number of refugees originating from this country (UNHCR via WB).

New internal displacements from conflict (IDMC via WB).

Cost to start a business as percentage of GNI per capita; institutional quality proxy (WB Doing Business / B-READY).

Days needed to enforce a commercial contract through the courts; rule of law proxy (WB Doing Business / B-READY).

Outbound remittances paid by workers in this country to other countries.

Gross central government debt as percentage of GDP; fiscal sustainability indicator.

Ratio of NPLs to total gross loans; banking sector stress indicator.

Bank assets as a percentage of GDP; financial development depth indicator (WB Global Financial Development DB).

Net ODA received as percentage of GNI; donor-dependence indicator (OECD DAC via WB).

How current regime ended: coup/election/negotiation/collapse

Absolute military size; military power indicator

Mineral resource rents; extractive dependency

Manufacturing growth; industrialization pace

Public institution quality; state capacity composite

Academic freedom: research, teaching, autonomy, campus safety

Volume of cereal imports; food import dependency and price shock vulnerability.

V-Dem v2xcl_rol — country-year political indicator

Real lending cost; investment incentive measure

Composite IDA country policy assessment; governance quality

V-Dem v2xcl_prpty — country-year political indicator

Business bribery rate; corruption direct measure

Share of decided claims that receive refugee status; internationally accepted measure of origin-country threat level

Share of 15-24 year olds in total population; UN WPP via OWID; political instability risk signal

Water stress ratio; agricultural water security and conflict risk from scarcity.

Credit depth; financial development and leverage

Share of employed in informal arrangements; instability, social protection deficit proxy

Opposition parties operate freely in legislature

Interest payments relative to GNI

Debt servicing share of revenue; fiscal stress

Export vs import price ratio; commodity terms of trade

V-Dem v2x_liberal — country-year political indicator

Executive embezzles public funds for private use

Legitimacy based on official state ideology

Military officers appointed by merit, not political loyalty

Binary: government is perpetrator of one-sided violence against civilians; state repression / democide signal

Refugees from country / total population; normalizes for country size, key comparability metric for ML features

Social media used to coordinate real-world political violence

Total workers in strikes; breadth of industrial unrest

Share of workers earning below 2/3 of median wage; low-pay prevalence and inequality

Climate disaster exposure; climate fragility baseline

External debt vs export capacity; debt sustainability

Fiscal balance (net); primary/deficit signal

Absolute current account balance; external position level

Remittance dependency; diaspora economy signal

Banking risk spread; credit market tightness

Investment growth momentum

Genuine savings rate; long-run wealth sustainability

Civil society and media as accountability mechanism

Overall accountability: vertical + horizontal + diagonal

Count of distinct state-based conflict dyads active in country-year; multi-front war complexity signal

End-year stock of refugees hosted in each country; measures humanitarian burden and regional spillover

Annual asylum claims originating from each country; push-factor signal reflecting persecution or conflict intensity

Implied years to clear pending asylum backlog at current decision rate; institutional capacity and rule-of-law proxy

Total working days lost; headline economic cost of industrial conflict

Share of employees in trade unions; worker bargaining power and social dialogue signal

Composite index of acute poverty across health, education, and living standards; 0-1 scale from household surveys

Core civil society: organizational freedom, participation, consultation

V-Dem v2x_regime_amb — country-year political indicator

V-Dem v2jucomp — country-year political indicator

Politically-motivated removal of judges

V-Dem v2catrauni — country-year political indicator

Best-estimate civilian fatalities from one-sided violence aggregated to country-year; targeted killing and atrocity intensity

Binary: state-based conflict reaches 'war' threshold (≥1,000 battle deaths); from incompatibility coding in PRIO-ACD dataset

Country-level temperature anomaly (1961-2025); climate change exposure and agricultural risk.

% population with severe food insecurity only (sub-indicator of FIES suite); access pillar proxy.

Full territorial control; no warlords or rebel-held areas

International constraints on government autonomy

Military share of govt spending; resource allocation

Public sector corruption in service delivery

V-Dem v2xnp_regcorr — country-year political indicator

Clientelism: vote buying, patron-client linkages, particularism

Years of current regime; longer = more entrenched/stable

Whether country is in an ongoing autocratization episode; V-Dem Episodes of Regime Transformation; regime change signal

Fatalities from government one-sided violence; state atrocity magnitude, distinct from battlefield deaths

UNHCR IDP stock / total population; normalized internal displacement burden, comparability-adjusted

Aggregate forced displacement burden for a country; single composite signal for ML feature engineering

% population experiencing moderate/severe food insecurity per Food Insecurity Experience Scale; SDG 2.1.2.

Oil rent share of GDP; petro-state exposure

Natural resource dependency; Dutch disease risk

Wage/labour share of GDP; functional income distribution; SDG 10.4.1 primary input

Food price volatility anomaly indicator; early warning for food price spikes and political instability.

Share of urban population living in slums; UN-HABITAT via OWID; urban fragility and inequality signal

Executive respects constitutional and judicial constraints

Atkinson measure of income inequality used in IHDI computation; distinct from Gini

V-Dem v2x_horacc — country-year political indicator

Vertical accountability through elections and parties

V-Dem v2x_cspart — country-year political indicator

High court independent from executive interference

V-Dem v2lgotovst — country-year political indicator

Government internet censorship effort

Foreign governments run domestic disinformation campaigns

Online political polarization causing social fragmentation

Anti-system movements challenging regime

Strength of anti-regime sentiment in population and elites

4-category classification: closed autocracy/electoral autocracy/electoral democracy/liberal democracy; V-Dem RoW 1900-2025; NOT in existing 109

Composite Bayesian latent variable index of coercive+extractive+administrative state capacity; 177 countries 1960-2015; NOT in 109

Aggregate of best-estimate deaths from all GED events (SB+NS+OS) in country-year; total lethality from organized violence

Binary flag for new conflict onset from UCDP Onset Dataset; leading rather than contemporaneous conflict signal

Years elapsed since last UCDP-recorded organized violence above threshold; post-conflict stability duration, recurrence risk proxy

End-year stock of people recognized as refugees originating from each country; core displacement pressure signal

Count of persons without any nationality; indicator of ethnic/citizenship discrimination and governance failure

NEET rate; SDG 8.6.1 indicator; catches discouraged youth outside all productive activity

Fiscal cash balance; short-term fiscal health

V-Dem v2x_civlib — country-year political indicator

V-Dem v2x_frassoc — country-year political indicator

V-Dem v2jupoatck — country-year political indicator

Media criticizes government and reports opposition views

Physical harassment/imprisonment of journalists

V-Dem v2smgovdom — country-year political indicator

Arrests of individuals for online political speech

Citizens can freely assemble for protests and meetings

State of emergency declared restricting civil liberties

Best-estimate battle-related deaths from state-based conflicts aggregated to country-year; core conflict intensity metric

Sum of deaths_civilians across all GED events in country-year; direct civilian harm signal from all organized violence

Best-estimate fatalities from non-state (communal/militia) conflicts aggregated to country-year; sub-state violence level

Homicide rate; violence and security environment

Youth bulge; demographic dividend/pressure signal

Social protection coverage breadth; SDG custodian ILO; fragility and welfare-state signal

Composite index of reproductive health, empowerment, and labour market gender inequality; 0=equal, 1=maximum inequality

HDI adjusted for inequality in health, education, and income; discount from HDI captures inequality penalty

UNHCR's own IDP stock estimates (separate from IDMC); measures internal displacement in countries UNHCR has operational mandate

V-Dem v2jucorrdc — country-year political indicator

Journalist self-censorship due to political pressure

Percentage change in UNHCR-reported IDP stock year-on-year; acceleration of displacement crisis or recovery signal

Count of georeferenced one-sided violence events; civilian targeting frequency, atrocity event density

Nominal military spending; defence budget context

Laws publicly known and consistently applied

Systematic pro-government bias in mainstream media

Diversity of political perspectives in media

Count of georeferenced non-state conflict events in country-year; communal violence frequency signal

Impartial professional public administration

Number of distinct first-level administrative regions with GED events; spatial diffusion of conflict, territorial control signal

V-Dem v2jucnind — country-year political indicator

V-Dem v2juhccomp — country-year political indicator

Count of distinct actors committing one-sided violence in country-year; plurality of targeting actors, repression breadth

V-Dem v2exthftps — country-year political indicator

Mechanisms for holding judiciary accountable

ACD type_of_conflict=4: foreign-state involvement in internal conflict

ACD ep_end=1: conflict de-escalation/resolution flag

ACD incompatibility=2 (territory)

Non-state electoral violence (V-Dem)

GED event count, type_of_violence in {2,3}

Coercive-capacity proxy: military professionalization (V-Dem)

Administrative state capacity

Diet quality/affordability proxy (FAOSTAT FS item 21012)

Share of the population living on less than $2.15/day (2017 PPP) — the extreme-poverty rate; a core social-fragility signal (World Bank).

Own-account and contributing family workers as a share of total employment; a precarious-work / labour-fragility signal (World Bank, modeled ILO estimate).

Share of the population without any sanitation facility, practising open defecation; an extreme service-deprivation / state-capacity signal (World Bank / WHO-UNICEF JMP).

Prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age) among children under five; chronic undernutrition and a long-run structural food-insecurity outcome (FAOSTAT).

Percentage difference between the Human Development Index and the inequality-adjusted IHDI — the overall inequality penalty on human development (UNDP HDR).