The indicators behind every score

3-year avg of adequacy of calorie supply vs minimum requirement. FAOSTAT FS.

Share of population with insufficient habitual food consumption. 3-year avg. FAOSTAT FS.

Cereal imports / (production + imports - exports). Trade vulnerability signal. FAOSTAT FS.

SDG 6.1.1 indicator. Core development + governance signal. FAOSTAT FS.

SDG 6.2.1 tier-3 indicator. Dev / governance signal. FAOSTAT FS.

Only global indicator tracking LGBTQ+ political inclusion. Sharp movements predict social_policy_reform. Hungary/Russia (declining) vs Taiwan/Ireland (rising) follow distinct recipes. Fills a complete event-category gap.

**Single biggest gap for Social Mobilization family.** Measures actual mobilization capacity (vs legal permission). Low + sudden liberalization = explosion of mobilization (Eastern Europe 1989). Directly serves mass_protest, labor_action, social_policy_reform.

Foundational enabler/disabler of mobilization. Civil society can't organize protests without right to form. Distinct from VD-05 (repression of *existing* organizations).

How corrupt is the executive branch specifically (not the country in general)? More targeted than WB's Control of Corruption which is economy-wide perception.

Property rights + freedom of movement + religion + equality before law. Property rights collapse precedes migration_and_refugees + economic_crisis. Religious freedom restrictions precede sectarian violence.

Primary substrate for gender_policy_reform (currently zero substrate). Cross-family: low scores predict democratic backsliding + authoritarian consolidation.

**Most cross-cutting V-Dem variable.** Distinct from VD-03/04 (formal constraints): measures *actual functioning* of legal system. Adds signal to 6 of 8 recipe families. 200+ years of expert-coded depth vs WB WGI's perception measure.

How actively do citizens engage in politics beyond voting? High participation + weak institutions = revolution risk. Low participation = coup risk (no one defends the regime).

Captures pre-violence repression: assembly→association→expression. Regimes that restrict political liberties before violence have a different trajectory. The gap between VD-15 and VD-12 is itself informative.

Static power-distribution measure. Combo with VD-26 distinguishes "formal rights but no power" (high VD-26 trajectory + low VD-27) — backlash regime type with specific instability patterns.

Is the government shutting down NGOs, arresting activists, restricting assembly? Escalating repression precedes political_violence and democratic breakdown.

Static institutional moderator. UK government collapse (bicameral) ≠ Turkey executive consolidation. Allows recipe filtering by institutional structure.

Direct antecedent for political_violence + human_rights_violation. A drop precedes regime-crisis events 1-2 years out. Isolates the "targeted assassination" channel that VD-12 blends into a composite.

Class-politics indicator entirely missing today. High elite capture predicts mass_protest + populist executive_transition. Arab Spring + LatAm pink tide + global populist wave all show high VD-28.

Patronage-network architecture. When network collapses (resource curse reversal, succession crisis), entire structure disintegrates rapidly. Primary recipe substrate for SSA + Central Asia + parts of MENA.

Electoral democracy + rule of law + civil liberties. The gap between VD-01 and VD-02 reveals "democratic facade" regimes — elections without genuine freedom. Use as the stable-democracy salience discount factor.

One of few V-Dem indicators serving Diplomacy & Geopolitics. Sovereignty collapse from 0.7 to 0.3 = foreign_intervention happening in real time. No WB indicator captures this.

Can parliament block the president? When this drops alongside VD-03, institutional checks are collapsing — strong signal for authoritarian consolidation.

elections + election_violence have no dedicated indicator today. VD-32 isolates electoral process specifically (vs VD-01 broader composite). Declining VD-32 with stable VD-01 = pre-fraud signal.

Leading indicator for political_repression + human_rights_violation. Regimes escalate torture before mass killings or crackdowns become visible. Independent measurement path from VD-12.

Historically deep signal for political_repression + democratic_transition where VD-08's alternative-information component is signal-poor pre-1990. Critical for pre-internet recipes.

Captures the executive *trying* to attack judicial independence (action), not just the outcome (VD-03). Reform attempts precede independence erosion 1-3 years. Direct substrate for judicial_reform.

**Strongest structural predictor of civil war onset** in political-science literature (Cederman, Wimmer). Tamils/Kurds/Tutsis all follow this recipe. Pairs with WB ethnic fractionalization.

Legitimacy collapse without losing power = pre-coup/pre-protest danger zone. Distinct from VD-01 (institutional quality) — measures perceived legitimacy. Cross-family signal.

Distinguishes clientelistic (Venezuela/Iraq) vs programmatic (austerity-resilient) vs identity (channels stress to ethnic/religious mobilization). No other indicator enables this differentiation.

Core democracy score. When this declines, a country is backsliding — precedes constitutional_change, protest, political_crisis. When it rises, democratic transition is underway.

Whole-of-government corruption (vs VD-07 executive-only). Gap between VD-07 and VD-18 reveals centralized (kleptocratic) vs diffuse (failed-state) corruption — different recipe trajectories.

0=closed autocracy, 1=electoral autocracy, 2=electoral democracy, 3=liberal democracy. Regime transitions between categories ARE the events QGI predicts. Use as a state variable for filtering.

Physical integrity rights — freedom from torture, extrajudicial killing, political imprisonment. Escalating violations are a 1-2 year leading indicator for political_violence and civil_war.

Group-differentiated rights (ethnic/religious/gender). Decline precedes sectarian violence + minority persecution. Combines with WB ethnic fractionalization for compound communal-violence recipe.

Can the government actually tax + deliver services? Substitute for the legacy v2stcapacity (renamed/retired in V-Dem v16, 2026-04). Low capacity + external stress = state failure → civil_war, humanitarian_crisis.

Media freedom + access to alternative information sources. When a government starts controlling media, it's preparing for something. 1-3 year leading indicator for authoritarian moves.

Operational measure of legislative accountability (vs VD-04 formal capability). Parliament that stops asking questions before formal constitutional change = early warning.

Can courts block the president? When this drops, executive power grab is underway. 2-4 year leading indicator for constitutional_change and democratic backsliding.

Is society splitting into irreconcilable camps? High polarization precedes constitutional crises, government formation failures, and election violence.

Total population is based on the de facto definition of population.

Inflation as measured by the annual growth rate of the GDP implicit deflator.

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency.

GNI per capita is the gross national income, converted to U.S. dollars using the World Bank Atlas method, divided by the midyear population.

Net migration is the net total of migrants during the period, that is, the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants.

Indicates the number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.

Arms transfers cover the supply of military weapons through sales, aid, gifts, and licenses and leases.

The probability per 1,000 that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five.

The number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

Food production index covers food crops that are considered edible and that contain nutrients.

The value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world.

Military expenditures data from SIPRI as a share of GDP.

Value added in services as a percentage of GDP.

General government final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP.

Current account balance as a percentage of GDP.

GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.

GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population.

The percentage of the urban population with access to electricity.

The value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP.

The value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index.

Value added in agriculture, forestry, and fishing as a percentage of GDP.

Value added in manufacturing as a percentage of GDP.

Gross capital formation (formerly gross domestic investment) consists of outlays on additions to the fixed assets of the economy plus net changes in the level of inventories.

Household final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP.

Total reserves comprise holdings of monetary gold, special drawing rights, reserves of IMF members held by the IMF, and holdings of foreign exchange.

Broad money (IFS line 35L..ZK) is the sum of currency outside banks; demand deposits other than those of the central government.

Labor force participation rate, female is the proportion of the female population ages 15-64 that is economically active.

Number of refugees originating from a country, recognised under the UNHCR mandate. Direct measure of conflict-driven displacement output.

Measures perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically-motivated violence.

Gross enrollment ratio is the ratio of total enrollment, regardless of age, to the population of the age group that officially corresponds to the level of education shown.

The proportion of a country's population that is employed.

The share of the labor force that is without work but available for and seeking employment.

The percentage of the rural population with access to electricity.

Individuals who have used the Internet (from any location) in the last 3 months.

Subscriptions to a public mobile telephone service that provide access to the PSTN using cellular technology.

The value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world.

Captures perceptions of the extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate in selecting their government.

Captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures.

Captures perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development.

Captures perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement.

Captures perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and grand forms of corruption.

Exports of military weapons through sales, aid, gifts, and licenses.

Gross domestic product at purchaser's prices, constant 2015 US$.

Value added in mining, manufacturing, construction, electricity, water, and gas as a percentage of GDP.

Foreign direct investment, net inflows as a percentage of GDP.

Foreign direct investment, net outflows as a percentage of GDP.

Total reserves expressed in terms of the number of months of imports of goods and services they could pay for.

Total external debt stocks as a percentage of gross national income.

The sum of principal repayments and interest actually paid in currency, goods, or services on long-term debt, interest paid on short-term debt, and repayments to the IMF.

Revenue is cash receipts from taxes, social contributions, and other revenues such as fines, fees, rent, and income from property or sales.

Tax revenue refers to compulsory transfers to the central government for public purposes.

Expense is cash payments for operating activities of the government in providing goods and services.

Lending rate is the bank rate that usually meets the short- and medium-term financing needs of the private sector.

High-technology exports are products with high R&D intensity, such as in aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, and electrical machinery.

Youth unemployment refers to the share of the labor force ages 15-24 without work but available for and seeking employment.

Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income (or, in some cases, consumption expenditure) among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution.

Net energy imports are estimated as energy use less production, both measured in oil equivalents.

Per-capita carbon dioxide emissions (excluding land-use change and forestry), scaled with IPCC AR5 GWPs. Replaces the retired EN.ATM.CO2E.PC.

Number of battle deaths from intra- or inter-state armed conflict; sourced from UCDP via WB.

Number of refugees originating from this country (UNHCR via WB).

New internal displacements from conflict (IDMC via WB).

Cost to start a business as percentage of GNI per capita; institutional quality proxy (WB Doing Business / B-READY).

Days needed to enforce a commercial contract through the courts; rule of law proxy (WB Doing Business / B-READY).

Outbound remittances paid by workers in this country to other countries.

Gross central government debt as percentage of GDP; fiscal sustainability indicator.

Ratio of NPLs to total gross loans; banking sector stress indicator.

Bank assets as a percentage of GDP; financial development depth indicator (WB Global Financial Development DB).

Net ODA received as percentage of GNI; donor-dependence indicator (OECD DAC via WB).