Structural Analogy Assessment

QGI Pattern Analysis of FSI-Flagged Countries

Pre-computed intelligence report — April 2026

Prepared for the Fund for Peace | qgintelligence.com

Classification: Demonstration Report — Not Commissioned

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1. Executive Summary

QGI analyzed the economic trajectories of 126 countries using 2.01 billion computed patterns across 58 World Bank indicators. Cross-referencing QGI's structural risk scores with the Fund for Peace's 2023 Fragile States Index (the latest available dataset), we found the following:

1. High agreement on the most fragile states. Of the FSI's top 15 most fragile countries, 11 also produce elevated structural risk signals in QGI (max salience >= 0.8). QGI's purely quantitative approach converges with FSI's expert-blended methodology on the world's most vulnerable states.

1. 10 potential sleeper countries identified. These countries rank between positions 41 and 130 on FSI (Warning through Elevated tiers) but show high structural similarity to pre-crisis trajectories of historically fragile states across conflict and crisis categories.

1. Structural twin matching reveals hidden trajectories. For the most fragile FSI countries, QGI identifies which other countries' historical economic paths they most closely resemble — and what happened to those reference countries subsequently.

1. Complementary intelligence. QGI's indicator-level evidence trail and structural-twin matching augment FSI's qualitative governance assessment. Together they cover both the structural economic dimension (QGI) and the institutional/social dimension (FSI).

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2. Where QGI Agrees with FSI

The following table maps the FSI's top 15 most fragile countries to QGI's structural risk analysis. Agreement is defined as a country producing a max salience score >= 0.8 in QGI's recipe-based scoring system (V1.8.1).

2.1 Country Profiles (Top 10 Agreement Countries)

Somalia (FSI #1, Score: 111.9)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 2.01
• Top signals: Civil War & Insurgency (z=2.01, salience=2.01); Terrorist Attack (z=1.19, salience=1.19); Political Repression (z=1.19, salience=0.95)
• Total recipe matches: 30,710
• Somalia's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 30,710 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Civil War & Insurgency and Terrorist Attack.

Syria (FSI #5, Score: 107.1)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.80
• Top signals: Civil War & Insurgency (z=1.80, salience=1.80); Terrorist Attack (z=1.44, salience=1.44); Bilateral Treaty (z=2.05, salience=0.82)
• Total recipe matches: 35,620
• Syria's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 35,620 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Civil War & Insurgency and Terrorist Attack.

Afghanistan (FSI #6, Score: 106.6)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 2.00
• Top signals: Civil War & Insurgency (z=2.00, salience=2.00); Terrorist Attack (z=1.77, salience=1.77); Foreign Intervention (z=1.59, salience=1.59)
• Total recipe matches: 326,903
• Afghanistan's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 326,903 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Civil War & Insurgency and Terrorist Attack.

Sudan (FSI #7, Score: 106.2)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.68
• Top signals: Civil War & Insurgency (z=1.68, salience=1.68); Military Coup (z=1.20, salience=1.20); Human Rights Violation (z=1.20, salience=0.96)
• Total recipe matches: 29,441
• Sudan's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 29,441 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Civil War & Insurgency and Military Coup.

Central African Republic (FSI #8, Score: 105.7)

• QGI Risk Tier: MODERATE | Max Salience: 1.18
• Top signals: Fiscal Policy Change (z=1.96, salience=1.18); Civil War & Insurgency (z=1.09, salience=1.09); Epidemic And Pandemic (z=1.29, salience=1.03)
• Total recipe matches: 373,196
• Central African Republic's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 373,196 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Fiscal Policy Change and Civil War & Insurgency.

Chad (FSI #9, Score: 104.6)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.21
• Top signals: Civil War & Insurgency (z=1.21, salience=1.21); Fiscal Policy Change (z=1.38, salience=0.83); Government Formation (z=1.45, salience=0.58)
• Total recipe matches: 330,491
• Chad's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 330,491 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Civil War & Insurgency and Fiscal Policy Change.

Haiti (FSI #10, Score: 102.9)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.42
• Top signals: Political Repression (z=1.78, salience=1.42); Migration And Refugees (z=1.64, salience=1.31); Democratic Transition (z=1.59, salience=0.95)
• Total recipe matches: 181,027
• Haiti's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 181,027 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Political Repression and Migration And Refugees.

Ethiopia (FSI #11, Score: 100.4)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.86
• Top signals: Civil War & Insurgency (z=1.86, salience=1.86); Migration And Refugees (z=1.15, salience=0.92); Government Formation (z=2.22, salience=0.89)
• Total recipe matches: 265,545
• Ethiopia's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 265,545 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Civil War & Insurgency and Migration And Refugees.

Myanmar (FSI #12, Score: 100.2)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.88
• Top signals: Civil War & Insurgency (z=1.88, salience=1.88); Human Rights Violation (z=1.37, salience=1.10); Political Repression (z=1.35, salience=1.08)
• Total recipe matches: 73,149
• Myanmar's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 73,149 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Civil War & Insurgency and Human Rights Violation.

Mali (FSI #13, Score: 99.5)

• QGI Risk Tier: MODERATE | Max Salience: 1.07
• Top signals: Civil War & Insurgency (z=1.07, salience=1.07); Fiscal Policy Change (z=1.13, salience=0.68); Government Formation (z=1.46, salience=0.58)
• Total recipe matches: 79,149
• Mali's trajectory across multiple World Bank indicators produces 79,149 active recipe matches, with highest structural signals in Civil War & Insurgency and Fiscal Policy Change.

2.2 Signal Heat Map: Top 10 Countries x Key Event Categories

The table below shows salience scores (max across tiers) for each country in five high-impact event categories. Higher scores indicate stronger structural similarity to historical pre-event trajectories.

Salience scores represent z-score normalized recipe match strength, weighted by event category severity. Scores above 1.0 indicate strong structural signals; above 1.5 indicate very strong signals.

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3. Where QGI Sees Signals FSI Has Not Flagged

This is the report's most analytically valuable section. These 'sleeper' countries rank between positions 41 and 130 on FSI — in the Warning through Elevated tiers — but produce high structural risk signals in QGI's conflict and crisis categories.

Selection criteria:

• FSI rank 41-130 (Warning through Elevated tier; excludes both Alert-tier countries and the most stable states)
• QGI max salience >= 0.8 in at least one high-drama category
• High-drama categories: civil war, terrorist attack, mass protest, political violence, interstate war, ethnic conflict, currency/banking crisis, economic recession, military coup

3.1 Sleeper Country Profiles

Russia (FSI #53, Score: 80.7)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Drama Salience: 1.80
• Top drama signal: Civil War & Insurgency
• Top categories: Civil War & Insurgency (1.80); Political Repression (1.44); Terrorist Attack (1.27)
• Total recipe matches: 79,714

Why FSI may underweight this: QGI's pattern engine detects structural trajectory similarities between Russia's current economic indicators and historical pre-crisis paths of other countries. FSI's annual expert-assessed snapshot may not capture these long-horizon economic trajectories.

Caveat: This is a structural signal, not a prediction. It means the economic trajectory resembles a historical pre-crisis path. It does not mean a crisis will occur.

Turkiye (FSI #52, Score: 81.2)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Drama Salience: 1.67
• Top drama signal: Civil War & Insurgency
• Top categories: Civil War & Insurgency (1.67); Political Repression (1.10); Terrorist Attack (0.92)
• Total recipe matches: 14,966

Why FSI may underweight this: QGI's pattern engine detects structural trajectory similarities between Turkiye's current economic indicators and historical pre-crisis paths of other countries. FSI's annual expert-assessed snapshot may not capture these long-horizon economic trajectories.

Caveat: This is a structural signal, not a prediction. It means the economic trajectory resembles a historical pre-crisis path. It does not mean a crisis will occur.

Saudi Arabia (FSI #100, Score: 65.3)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Drama Salience: 1.62
• Top drama signal: Civil War & Insurgency
• Top categories: Civil War & Insurgency (1.62); Terrorist Attack (1.16); Bilateral Treaty (0.98)
• Total recipe matches: 63,630

Why FSI may underweight this: QGI's pattern engine detects structural trajectory similarities between Saudi Arabia's current economic indicators and historical pre-crisis paths of other countries. FSI's annual expert-assessed snapshot may not capture these long-horizon economic trajectories.

Caveat: This is a structural signal, not a prediction. It means the economic trajectory resembles a historical pre-crisis path. It does not mean a crisis will occur.

India (FSI #73, Score: 74.1)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Drama Salience: 1.56
• Top drama signal: Civil War & Insurgency
• Top categories: Civil War & Insurgency (1.56); Terrorist Attack (1.22); Elections & Voting (1.12)
• Total recipe matches: 206,225

Why FSI may underweight this: QGI's pattern engine detects structural trajectory similarities between India's current economic indicators and historical pre-crisis paths of other countries. FSI's annual expert-assessed snapshot may not capture these long-horizon economic trajectories.

Caveat: This is a structural signal, not a prediction. It means the economic trajectory resembles a historical pre-crisis path. It does not mean a crisis will occur.

Thailand (FSI #91, Score: 68.0)

• QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Drama Salience: 1.51
• Top drama signal: Mass Protest
• Top categories: Mass Protest (1.51); Constitutional Change (1.18); Military Coup (1.13)
• Total recipe matches: 21,540

Why FSI may underweight this: QGI's pattern engine detects structural trajectory similarities between Thailand's current economic indicators and historical pre-crisis paths of other countries. FSI's annual expert-assessed snapshot may not capture these long-horizon economic trajectories.

Caveat: This is a structural signal, not a prediction. It means the economic trajectory resembles a historical pre-crisis path. It does not mean a crisis will occur.

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4. Structural Twins: Deep Dives

QGI's structural-twin capability identifies which other countries' historical economic trajectories a focal country most closely resembles. This section profiles five high-risk countries and their structural analogues.

Note: Full structural twin analysis requires access to QGI's patterns table (2.01 billion rows). The profiles below use recipe category overlap as a proxy for structural similarity. A commissioned report would include per-indicator correlation analysis and time-shifted trajectory charts.

4.1 Sudan

FSI Rank: 7 | QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.68

Structural Analogues (by recipe category overlap):

Sudan's structural risk profile — particularly in Civil War & Insurgency and Human Rights Violation — overlaps with Myanmar's pattern signature. Both countries produce elevated recipe matches across 3 shared event categories, suggesting they face similar structural pressures as measured by World Bank economic indicators.

Top QGI Signals:

• Civil War & Insurgency: salience 1.68, z-score 1.68, 961 recipes
• Military Coup: salience 1.20, z-score 1.20, 715 recipes
• Human Rights Violation: salience 0.96, z-score 1.20, 576 recipes
• Mass Protest: salience 0.77, z-score 0.97, 2,179 recipes
• Economic Recession: salience 0.74, z-score 0.93, 1,464 recipes

4.2 Haiti

FSI Rank: 10 | QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.42

Structural Analogues (by recipe category overlap):

Haiti's structural risk profile — particularly in Civil War & Insurgency and Epidemic And Pandemic — overlaps with Ethiopia's pattern signature. Both countries produce elevated recipe matches across 3 shared event categories, suggesting they face similar structural pressures as measured by World Bank economic indicators.

Top QGI Signals:

• Political Repression: salience 1.42, z-score 1.78, 7,652 recipes
• Migration And Refugees: salience 1.31, z-score 1.64, 5,150 recipes
• Democratic Transition: salience 0.95, z-score 1.59, 4,525 recipes
• Epidemic And Pandemic: salience 0.91, z-score 1.13, 3,306 recipes
• Civil War & Insurgency: salience 0.82, z-score 0.82, 7,912 recipes

4.3 Lebanon

FSI Rank: 25 | QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 2.20

Structural Analogues (by recipe category overlap):

Lebanon's structural risk profile — particularly in Bilateral Treaty and Civil War & Insurgency — overlaps with Syria's pattern signature. Both countries produce elevated recipe matches across 4 shared event categories, suggesting they face similar structural pressures as measured by World Bank economic indicators.

Top QGI Signals:

• Civil War & Insurgency: salience 2.20, z-score 2.20, 7,590 recipes
• Terrorist Attack: salience 0.89, z-score 0.89, 5,418 recipes
• Government Formation: salience 0.87, z-score 2.18, 14,890 recipes
• Economic Recession: salience 0.77, z-score 0.97, 1,786 recipes
• Bilateral Treaty: salience 0.62, z-score 1.55, 9,740 recipes

4.4 Pakistan

FSI Rank: 32 | QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 2.05

Structural Analogues (by recipe category overlap):

Pakistan's structural risk profile — particularly in Civil War & Insurgency and Elections & Voting — overlaps with Russia's pattern signature. Both countries produce elevated recipe matches across 4 shared event categories, suggesting they face similar structural pressures as measured by World Bank economic indicators.

Top QGI Signals:

• Civil War & Insurgency: salience 2.05, z-score 2.05, 3,944 recipes
• Terrorist Attack: salience 1.22, z-score 1.22, 5,922 recipes
• Military Coup: salience 1.21, z-score 1.21, 1,991 recipes
• Political Repression: salience 1.02, z-score 1.28, 1,870 recipes
• Elections & Voting: salience 0.84, z-score 1.41, 5,232 recipes

4.5 Russia

FSI Rank: 53 | QGI Risk Tier: HIGH | Max Salience: 1.80

Structural Analogues (by recipe category overlap):

Russia's structural risk profile — particularly in Bilateral Treaty and Civil War & Insurgency — overlaps with Turkiye's pattern signature. Both countries produce elevated recipe matches across 5 shared event categories, suggesting they face similar structural pressures as measured by World Bank economic indicators.

Top QGI Signals:

• Civil War & Insurgency: salience 1.80, z-score 1.80, 8,611 recipes
• Political Repression: salience 1.44, z-score 1.80, 3,983 recipes
• Terrorist Attack: salience 1.27, z-score 1.27, 4,536 recipes
• Bilateral Treaty: salience 0.86, z-score 2.16, 5,850 recipes
• Elections & Voting: salience 0.83, z-score 1.39, 2,147 recipes

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5. Lead-Time Advantage: Historical FSI Deterioration and QGI Signals

This section examines whether QGI's structural signals correlate with subsequent FSI score deteriorations. We identify countries that experienced significant FSI score increases (>= 4.0 points year-over-year, indicating worsening fragility) and check whether QGI produces elevated structural risk signals for those same countries.

5.1 FSI Deterioration Events with QGI Structural Signals

5.2 Interpretation

The countries above experienced sharp FSI deteriorations (>= 4 points year-over-year) AND produce elevated structural risk signals in QGI's V1.8.1 scoring. This correlation supports the hypothesis that QGI's pattern-based structural analysis captures risk dimensions that manifest in FSI's composite scoring with a time lag.

Key observations:

• Libya: FSI score ranged from 68.5 (2006) to 97.0 (2021) across 2006-2023. QGI detects 84,083 recipe matches with strongest signals in Civil War & Insurgency (salience: 2.00).
• Lebanon: FSI score ranged from 80.5 (2006) to 95.7 (2008) across 2006-2023. QGI detects 115,965 recipe matches with strongest signals in Civil War & Insurgency (salience: 2.20).
• Mali: FSI score ranged from 74.6 (2006) to 99.5 (2023) across 2006-2023. QGI detects 79,149 recipe matches with strongest signals in Civil War & Insurgency (salience: 1.07).

Note: This analysis demonstrates correlation between QGI's structural signals and FSI deterioration events. Causal claims require additional temporal analysis with recipe trigger years from the full Athena pipeline. A commissioned analysis would include per-recipe temporal windows to measure precise lead time.

5.3 FSI Score Trajectories (Selected Countries, 2006-2023)

FSI scores range 0-120. Higher scores indicate greater fragility. Sharp year-over-year increases indicate rapid deterioration.

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6. Methodology and Reproducibility

6.1 How QGI Works

QGI (Quantitative Geopolitical Intelligence) is a pattern-based structural risk analysis system. It works in three stages:

1. SCDI Detection. For every pair of countries and every World Bank indicator, QGI computes the Pearson correlation coefficient between all possible time-window combinations. Pairs with |R| >= 0.7 are flagged as Structurally Correlated Development Indicators (SCDIs). This produces 14.3 billion SCDIs across 214 countries and 58 indicators (as of April 2026).

1. Pattern Aggregation. SCDIs sharing the same country pair, start years, and window length are grouped into patterns. Each pattern records how many indicators correlate and at what average strength. The system has computed 2.01 billion patterns.

1. Recipe Matching. For each pattern, QGI checks whether both countries experienced the same type of geopolitical event within a +/-15% time window around the pattern's end years. Matching events produce 'recipes' — structural analogies with verified historical precedent.

6.2 Scoring (V1.8.1)

Recipe matches are scored using z-score normalization per country, combined via Reciprocal Rank Fusion (RRF) across four time-horizon tiers (S: 3-8 years, M: 9-20 years, L: 21-40 years, XL: 41+ years). Salience weighting adjusts scores by event category severity (conflict categories weight 1.0, governance categories 0.6-0.8).

6.3 Data Provenance

6.4 Architectural Decisions

6.5 Known Limitations

1. Events are AI-curated. Geopolitical event histories were generated by AI models and verified by human review. They are not primary-source ground truth.
2. Annual resolution only. QGI operates on annual indicator data. Sub-annual dynamics are not captured.
3. Look-ahead bias exists. The current SCDI computation (V1) does not enforce strict temporal boundaries. This is a documented known limitation (D8).
4. Correlation is not causation. Structural similarity between countries' economic trajectories does not guarantee similar outcomes.
5. World Bank data lag. World Bank indicators have a 1-2 year publication lag. The most recent data points may be estimates.
6. Score compression at extremes. Z-score normalization can compress distinctions among the most fragile states, which tend to cluster at similar scores.

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7. Data Sources

This report uses the following data sources:

• QGI country-risks.json (V1.8.1, generated 2026-04-13): 126 scored countries with salience scores, risk tiers, and recipe counts across 4 time-horizon tiers.
• FSI 2023 rankings: 179 countries ranked by the Fund for Peace's Fragile States Index. The 2023 dataset is the latest available in our archive.
• FSI historical data (2006-2023): 145 countries with year-over-year FSI total scores, used for deterioration analysis.
• QGI salience profiles: L1/L2 domain-level risk scores for 198 countries.

All QGI data is derived from the QGI V1.8.1 pipeline output (April 2026). FSI data is from publicly available Fund for Peace publications.

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8. Next Steps

Tier 1: Explore (Free)

• Browse all 126 scored countries at qgintelligence.com
• Full methodology published at qgintelligence.com/methodology
• Country Intelligence Browser with risk tiers and evidence breakdowns

Tier 2: Collaboration — FSI-Specific Deep Analysis

QGI runs its full pattern engine against FSI's historical sub-indicator scores (2006-2024), producing per-sub-indicator structural twins with indicator-level sparkline charts and precise lead-time measurements.

• Deliverable: Extended report with per-sub-indicator structural twins
• Timeline: 4-6 weeks from data handoff to report delivery

Tier 3: Partnership — Ongoing Intelligence Feed

• Monthly structural analogy updates aligned to FSI methodology
• Custom dashboard showing FSI countries through QGI's structural-twin lens
• White-label option for FFP publications

Contact: amin@qgintelligence.com | qgintelligence.com

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Report generated: 2026-04-17 00:10 UTC

QGI — Quantitative Geopolitical Intelligence

This report does not constitute investment advice. All structural analogies represent statistical correlations, not causal predictions.