Afghanistan
HIGHCivil War And Insurgency
Afghanistan shows strong signals for civil war and insurgency. 117,102 historical precedent windows were identified across all four pattern length tiers (short, medium, long, and institutional). This means Afghanistan's economic indicators are following trajectories that, in other countries, preceded civil war and insurgency events. The most recent matching event in the curated database was in 2021.
Signal by Pattern Length Tier
Different pattern lengths capture different dynamics. Short patterns (3–8 years) detect policy cycles and fiscal crises. Long patterns (21+ years) detect structural and institutional trajectories.
What This Means
QGI found 117,102historical cases where other countries' economic indicators followed a trajectory that subsequently led to a civil war and insurgency event. Afghanistan's current indicator trajectory matches these historical patterns.
This does not mean Afghanistan will experience civil war and insurgency. It means the economic conditions that historically preceded such events in other countries are present in Afghanistan's current data. Analysts should examine the underlying evidence and apply domain expertise.
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.