Countries/Indonesia/Government Formation

Indonesia

HIGH

Government Formation

Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026

Indonesia shows weak signals for government formation. 26,159 historical precedent windows were identified across all four pattern length tiers (short, medium, long, and institutional). This means Indonesia's economic indicators are following trajectories that, in other countries, preceded government formation events. The most recent matching event in the curated database was in 2024.

26,159
Precedent Windows
Historical trajectory matches
0.47
Peak Salience
Weak signal
4
Active Tiers
of 4 pattern length tiers
2024
Last Event Year
Most recent matching event

Signal by Pattern Length Tier

Different pattern lengths capture different dynamics. Short patterns (3–8 years) detect policy cycles and fiscal crises. Long patterns (21+ years) detect structural and institutional trajectories.

S
Short-term (3–8 years)
1,989 precedents · salience=0.42
M
Medium-term (9–20 years)
3,811 precedents · salience=0.30
L
Long-term (21–40 years)
8,809 precedents · salience=0.39
XL
Institutional (41+ years)
11,550 precedents · salience=0.47

What This Means

QGI found 26,159historical cases where other countries' economic indicators followed a trajectory that subsequently led to a government formation event. Indonesia's current indicator trajectory matches these historical patterns.

This does not mean Indonesia will experience government formation. It means the economic conditions that historically preceded such events in other countries are present in Indonesia's current data. Analysts should examine the underlying evidence and apply domain expertise.

QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.