Nigeria
HIGHMilitary Coup
Nigeria shows moderate signals for military coup. 1,392 historical precedent windows were identified in one pattern length tier. This means Nigeria's economic indicators are following trajectories that, in other countries, preceded military coup events. The most recent matching event in the curated database was in 1993.
Signal by Pattern Length Tier
Different pattern lengths capture different dynamics. Short patterns (3–8 years) detect policy cycles and fiscal crises. Long patterns (21+ years) detect structural and institutional trajectories.
What This Means
QGI found 1,392historical cases where other countries' economic indicators followed a trajectory that subsequently led to a military coup event. Nigeria's current indicator trajectory matches these historical patterns.
This does not mean Nigeria will experience military coup. It means the economic conditions that historically preceded such events in other countries are present in Nigeria's current data. Analysts should examine the underlying evidence and apply domain expertise.
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.