Countries/United States/Political Corruption

United States

MODERATE

Political Corruption

Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026

United States shows moderate signals for political corruption. 2,653 historical precedent windows were identified across all four pattern length tiers (short, medium, long, and institutional). This means United States's economic indicators are following trajectories that, in other countries, preceded political corruption events. The most recent matching event in the curated database was in 2024.

2,653
Precedent Windows
Historical trajectory matches
0.65
Peak Salience
Moderate signal
4
Active Tiers
of 4 pattern length tiers
2024
Last Event Year
Most recent matching event

Signal by Pattern Length Tier

Different pattern lengths capture different dynamics. Short patterns (3–8 years) detect policy cycles and fiscal crises. Long patterns (21+ years) detect structural and institutional trajectories.

S
Short-term (3–8 years)
465 precedents · salience=0.57
M
Medium-term (9–20 years)
1,061 precedents · salience=0.65
L
Long-term (21–40 years)
749 precedents · salience=0.24
XL
Institutional (41+ years)
378 precedents · salience=-0.30

What This Means

QGI found 2,653historical cases where other countries' economic indicators followed a trajectory that subsequently led to a political corruption event. United States's current indicator trajectory matches these historical patterns.

This does not mean United States will experience political corruption. It means the economic conditions that historically preceded such events in other countries are present in United States's current data. Analysts should examine the underlying evidence and apply domain expertise.

QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.