United States
MODERATETrade Agreement
United States shows weak signals for trade agreement. 1,743 historical precedent windows were identified across all four pattern length tiers (short, medium, long, and institutional). This means United States's economic indicators are following trajectories that, in other countries, preceded trade agreement events. The most recent matching event in the curated database was in 2025.
Signal by Pattern Length Tier
Different pattern lengths capture different dynamics. Short patterns (3–8 years) detect policy cycles and fiscal crises. Long patterns (21+ years) detect structural and institutional trajectories.
What This Means
QGI found 1,743historical cases where other countries' economic indicators followed a trajectory that subsequently led to a trade agreement event. United States's current indicator trajectory matches these historical patterns.
This does not mean United States will experience trade agreement. It means the economic conditions that historically preceded such events in other countries are present in United States's current data. Analysts should examine the underlying evidence and apply domain expertise.
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.