China
MODERATEEconomic Recession
China shows moderate signals for economic recession. 42,432 historical precedent windows were identified across all four pattern length tiers (short, medium, long, and institutional). This means China's economic indicators are following trajectories that, in other countries, preceded economic recession events. The most recent matching event in the curated database was in 2021.
Signal by Pattern Length Tier
Different pattern lengths capture different dynamics. Short patterns (3–8 years) detect policy cycles and fiscal crises. Long patterns (21+ years) detect structural and institutional trajectories.
What This Means
QGI found 42,432historical cases where other countries' economic indicators followed a trajectory that subsequently led to a economic recession event. China's current indicator trajectory matches these historical patterns.
This does not mean China will experience economic recession. It means the economic conditions that historically preceded such events in other countries are present in China's current data. Analysts should examine the underlying evidence and apply domain expertise.
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.