Countries/Costa Rica/Mass Protest

Costa Rica

MODERATE

Mass Protest

Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026

Costa Rica shows moderate signals for mass protest. 38,702 historical precedent windows were identified across all four pattern length tiers (short, medium, long, and institutional). This means Costa Rica's economic indicators are following trajectories that, in other countries, preceded mass protest events. The most recent matching event in the curated database was in 2021.

38,702
Precedent Windows
Historical trajectory matches
0.52
Peak Salience
Moderate signal
4
Active Tiers
of 4 pattern length tiers
2021
Last Event Year
Most recent matching event

Signal by Pattern Length Tier

Different pattern lengths capture different dynamics. Short patterns (3–8 years) detect policy cycles and fiscal crises. Long patterns (21+ years) detect structural and institutional trajectories.

S
Short-term (3–8 years)
2,991 precedents · salience=0.33
M
Medium-term (9–20 years)
7,009 precedents · salience=0.34
L
Long-term (21–40 years)
17,633 precedents · salience=0.52
XL
Institutional (41+ years)
11,069 precedents · salience=0.45

What This Means

QGI found 38,702historical cases where other countries' economic indicators followed a trajectory that subsequently led to a mass protest event. Costa Rica's current indicator trajectory matches these historical patterns.

This does not mean Costa Rica will experience mass protest. It means the economic conditions that historically preceded such events in other countries are present in Costa Rica's current data. Analysts should examine the underlying evidence and apply domain expertise.

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All active signals for Costa Rica with indicator details
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QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.