Countries/Haiti/Government Formation

Haiti

HIGH

Government Formation

Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026

Haiti shows weak signals for government formation. 16,391 historical precedent windows were identified across 2 pattern length tiers. This means Haiti's economic indicators are following trajectories that, in other countries, preceded government formation events. The most recent matching event in the curated database was in 2001.

16,391
Precedent Windows
Historical trajectory matches
0.43
Peak Salience
Weak signal
2
Active Tiers
of 4 pattern length tiers
2001
Last Event Year
Most recent matching event

Signal by Pattern Length Tier

Different pattern lengths capture different dynamics. Short patterns (3–8 years) detect policy cycles and fiscal crises. Long patterns (21+ years) detect structural and institutional trajectories.

S
Short-term (3–8 years)
4,644 precedents · salience=0.43
M
Medium-term (9–20 years)
11,747 precedents · salience=0.37
L
Long-term (21–40 years)
No signal
XL
Institutional (41+ years)
No signal

What This Means

QGI found 16,391historical cases where other countries' economic indicators followed a trajectory that subsequently led to a government formation event. Haiti's current indicator trajectory matches these historical patterns.

This does not mean Haiti will experience government formation. It means the economic conditions that historically preceded such events in other countries are present in Haiti's current data. Analysts should examine the underlying evidence and apply domain expertise.

QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.